Observer.com news, "People have expressed trust in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the third time! This is a historic feat in Indian history." On June 4, local time, Indian Prime Minister Modi announced on social media that he announced on social media.Victory.This means that he starts the term of the third prime minister and ties the term of office of the founding Prime Minister of India.
The current ticket counting has been more than half but has not yet ended.According to the preliminary counting results, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Indian People's Party (Indian Party, BJP) led by Modi leads the number of votes in most constituencies.
However, the Indian party is considered to lose most of the seats.Bloomberg said that the Indian Party is currently led by 240 seats, which is lower than the 272 seats required by the government, which is the minimum support for Modi since its administration in 2014.The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leads 293 seats. If unity is united, it is enough to set up a government.The Indian National Development tolerance Alliance is expected to win 229 seats.Lucknow Wealth Management
In terms of economy, on June 3, local time, Reuters quoted Indian informed officials that Modi had planned to take a series of reform measures during the third term, such as modifying the labor law and reducing the tariffs on the upstream of the manufacturing industry."Step in the Indian manufacturing industry".However, some professionals believe that Modi's ambitions have faced issues such as land supply as a "global manufacturing center".
From a political point of view, the Indian media believes that if Modi is re -elected for the third time, it means that India's "secularism" may be completely ended.Because the Indian party may further control the upper and lower courtyards to the two -thirds of the majority, in order to achieve the goal of being able to thoroughly marginal Muslims through constitutional amendments.
Modi announced the victory on social media X
The Indian election voting is opened (Visual India)Varanasi Stock
During the announcement of the ticket data on the 4th, the seats obtained by the Indian Party and the National Democratic Alliance were lower than previously optimistic expectations. They only led with weak advantages, which once caused investors' concerns.Reversal, the largest decline in four years.According to the New York Times, the benchmark stock index has fallen by 8%, "almost all the increases this year."
Comprehensive Reuters reports that all industries in India have been affected, and state -owned enterprises have been hit most seriously.Bank stocks fell 7.8%, real estate stocks fell 9.1%, infrastructure stocks fell 10.5%, and oil and natural gas stocks fell 11.7%.
On the eve of the election, Modi set an ambitious goal: the Indian party must win 370 seats in the parliament, and the National Democratic Alliance has obtained more than 400 seats this year.In 2019, the National Democratic Alliance won 353 seats, of which 303 seats were held.
However, after a few hours of ticket calculation, compared with the governing alliance predicted by the export polls, the actual election seems to be much more nervous.The Indian Party Alliance received 290 seats, while the Indian National Development tolerance (INDIA) led by the National University of China (INDIA) received 220 seats, higher than the expected 125 to 182 seats.
"Fairly, 400 seats now seem to be far away." Nalin Kohli, a Indian party spokesman, admitted to "India today", "But we need to wait ... to understand the final situation of the seat position.Because export polls show that there will be a large -scale sweep, (and) the current voting trend seems to be inconsistent with this. "
Although Modi has been re -elected, his status in the parliament will be "precarious", which will also bring uncertainty to the ruling of Modi's third term.Modi may need to seek the support of local political parties such as the Telugu Desam Party such as Telugu Desam Party to form a joint government.
If the final situation is true, this will be the first time in Modi's political career to lead a government without an absolute majority.And this choice will also test Modi, because the hometown party of Tyu does not agree with the Hindu priority agenda advocated by the Indian party.Agra Stock
On May 28, local time, before the final stage of the Indian election, the Indian Prime Minister and the leader of the Indian People's Party (BJP), the leader of the Indian Prime Minister, watched to the supporters at the campaign rally held by Kolkata (Visual India)
"The main cuisine will appear during the third term", and it is intended to reform sharply
In February of this year, the Modi government announced the largest capital expenditure in India's history in the annual budget, with a funding of 11.11 trillion rupees, more than three times over 5 years ago.He once said, "The development of the past 10 years is only an appetizer, and the main course will appear in the third term."
It has always been a key policy for Modi's "Global Manufacturing Center".Earlier, he made a campaign commitment in Mumbai, saying that after re -election, he would implement the "Hundred Days Plan" immediately, focusing on promoting reforms in the four fields of manufacturing, artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and clean energy.
Reuters said on June 3 that regarding the continuous development of the Indian economy, Modi promoted India's "alternative choices" for global companies to realize "diversified supply chain".World Bank data shows that "Indian manufacturing" currently accounts for less than 3%of the global manufacturing industry, while "Made in India" accounts for 24%.The report quoted an internal document content that the Indian government plans to increase the value to 5%by 2030 and increase to 10%by 2047.
The document did not mention specific details. The report quoted informed Indian officials saying that if it won the third term this week, Modi has planned to take a series of reform measures to "higher than the Indian manufacturing industry."
This includes the amendment to the labor law, making it easier for enterprises to adjust employment.According to reports, in most parts of India, companies with more than 100 employees need to be authorized by the state government in order to hire or dismiss employees, which hinders companies to adjust their business according to their needs.
The Parliament controlled by the Indian Party has previously passed the legislation to increase the threshold of the enterprise scale that has obtained the approval to 300, but was blocked by the state government.The above -mentioned officials revealed that Modi hopes that the victory on June 4 can provide him with motivation and political capital to repel the opposition and implement the reform of labor law.
He also said that at the same time, Modi plans to further reduce levy import tax on the key upstream products of local manufacturing products.
It is reported that in response to high import tariffs including high -end manufacturing parts, it has promoted the rise in Indian manufacturing costs, which is another reason that hinders India to become a "global manufacturing center".According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2022, India's average import tariffs imposed by WTO member states were 18.1%, while India was only 7.5%.
In addition, according to Reuters, according to 15 people including officials including officials, major investors, economists, and union members, they believe that Modi will build India as a "global manufacturing center" and also face industrial land acquisition.Question constraints.
Government agencies Gujilat Bang Industrial Development Corporation (GIDC) is responsible for developing industrial parks equipped with basic infrastructure and public services.The person in charge Rahul Gupta said GIDC hopes to attract more manufacturing companies by providing a 99 -year lease on the government's land.He predicts that about two or three years later, local business activities will increase greatly.However, local officials said that it takes more than ten years to collect land and sign infrastructure contracts.
Richard Rossow, a researcher at the US Strategy and International Issues Research Center (CSIS), also said that outside these areas, industrial groups still need to go through a "very difficult process" to get what they needLarge land, because the labeling of the land deeds is often unclear, and the land held is also very scattered.
The above -mentioned Indian officials also mentioned that, as part of the campaign commitment to transform India into a global manufacturing center, Modi also hopes to follow up a package plan for recent semiconductor companies and electric vehicle manufacturers to provide domestic production subsidies.
Comprehensive Indian media "Business TODAY" reported that just three months ago (March), the Indian government just approved the "Indiaai Mission" for more than 103 billion rupees (about RMB 8.9754 billionYuan), used to strengthen India's artificial intelligence ecosystem in the next 5 years.
Economic data is hot, and there is continuous concerns behind high growth
Data show that India has achieved a growth rate of more than 7%for two consecutive years.The United Nations has recently raised India's GDP growth rate from the original 6.2%to 6.9%, because of "stable public investment and strong private consumption."Many people are optimistic about India's economic growth prospects.Modi has recently confidently mentioned that it is necessary to build India into the third largest economy in the world.
However, despite a number of economic data, there are still many problems that need to be solved in India.Due to the imbalance of the development of the domestic manufacturing industry in different industries, and the multi -policy movement, there is a significant gap between the beautiful vision of the government and the investment considerations of the international community.There are cautious attitudes.
India's net value of foreign direct investment (FDI) in fiscal year from 2023 to 2024 fell to $ 26.6 billion, the lowest level since fiscal 2006 to 2007.The analysis shows that the main reason for the decline in the net value of the Indian FDI is the surge in the evacuation of India's foreign capital, which has been affected by factors such as rising global FDI loan costs, geopolitical tensions, and intensified protectionism.
According to data disclosed by the Bank of India, more than 60%of FDI currently flows to manufacturing, energy industry, IT services and financial services.Although the net value of India's FDI is declining, the flow of flow is still stronger than that of other economies.
According to India's main opposition party, behind India's rapid economic growth, only a small number of groups have benefited.The Indian National Congress Jairam Ramesh said that large private enterprises in India monopolized dozens of industries that have dozens of relations with national economy and people's livelihood, while grabbing huge profits, making the lives of the poor.
"'Indian manufacturing' has not created employment opportunities." Column reports such as the Wall Street Journal and Foreign Policy in the United States pointed out that although the Indian government encouraged to create more jobs in the manufacturing industry, there are still tens of millions of labor returning in recent years.Rural.Some experts warn that this may have a "disaster" on India's economic structure development, especially the long -term shortage of skilled workers in the manufacturing industry may undermine the "Indian manufacturing" plan.
The European Think Tank "World Irregulation Laboratory" recently released a report saying that India has become one of the worst gaps in the world in the world.As of March 2023, India's richest 1%of the population controlled 40.1%of the country's wealth, and its revenue had reached 22.6%of the national total revenue. Both data reached the highest level of history.
The above report also added that due to statistical data quality problems, India's actual level of the gap between the rich and the poor may be more severe than the situation shown in the report.
"The most magnificent marginal movement in human history"
In terms of politics, Hardash Balt, a political editor of the well -known Indian news magazine "Toban Cars", pointed out that unlike most political parties in India, the pursuit of the Indian party is not just the implementation of the election and the implementation of independent leading policies, but the political powerAs a way to achieve a greater goal, it is trying to transform India into a "Indian country".
As an Hindu nationalist organization, the Indian Party aims to completely reorganize India into a Hindu country.It expects to place Hinduism in the core of public life, treat the status of Hinduism as a condition for obtaining formal Indian citizenship, and even formulate laws, threatening to detention and deportation of many Muslims in India.During the ten years of Modi, the Indian Muslim group has been blatantly "degraded into" second -class citizens.
Muslims confronted Hinduists. Although the police were maintaining order, the two sides still tense and even threw stones at each other.
The article states that for Modi, if these greater changes are to be achieved, the constitution is bound to be required. This requires the Indian party to control the 2/3 majority of the upper and lower seats, including controlling the Federal Institute (Shangyuan).If the party continues to maintain a lot of victory and sweeping all the situation in 2025 and subsequent state elections, then it will inevitably obtain the power to delete the constitutional medium and secular terms and related expressions.
The article believes that if Modi is elected this time, in the next five years, the Indian party will inevitably promote "the largest systemic social discrimination process in human history", and Muslims will be more marginalized.If the party has achieved great success, the Indian government may also experience "irreversible re -construction".
"It is expected to ease" relations with ChinaSurat Investment
On May 31, local time, the new Indian ambassador to India Xu Feihong submitted a national book to the Indian President Draapadi Murmu and held a ceremony.The Hong Kong media "South China Morning Post" pointed out that since the departure of the former ambassador Sun Weidong, the position has been vacant for 18 months. This is the longest vacancy since the resumption of mutual ambassadors in 1976.
It is reported that the situation in the China -India border in 2020 was tight and the relationship between the two countries worsen.As Modi expects the third re -election and will soon resume diplomatic activities for China, the relationship between China and India is expected to ease.
Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, submitted the State Book (Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs) to the Indian President Mulu
According to a comprehensive Indian media report, Modi said in April that India and India "urgently need to solve the long -term boundary issues of the two countries."The newly elected Prime Minister ’s Foreign Affairs is expected to include the Summit of the Seventh -way Group in Italy in June and the Mumbai Cooperation Organization Summit held in Kazakhstan in July.
Regarding Modi's statement about the significance of China -India relations, Xu Feihong pointed out when he was interviewed on the eve of the new eve of the India Play that China has always believed that Sino -Indian relations can not be defined in a single issue or field. Border issues are not Sino -Indian relations.all.He emphasized that after the border incident occurred in June 2020, the Chinese side and the Indian side maintained diplomatic and military channels. The two armies had achieved disconnection from the four points in the western section of the border.He is peaceful.
On May 30, Wu Qian, director of the News Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and a spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, also said that in 2020, the situation of the China -India border is very clear.The guidelines are caused by the provocation of the provocative, and the responsibility is not in the Chinese side at all.Since then, China has maintained communication through diplomatic and military channels.At present, the situation in the border between China and India is generally stable. We hope that the Indian side and the Chinese side will be on each other.
Zhao Ruoxi, the author of the Observer Network column, pointed out that the United States and Pakistan, as an important third party, affected India's diplomacy against China, and India was difficult to properly handle relations with China, which has also become a major obstacle to Modi's realization of the dream of great powers.
At present, checks and balance India is one of the main goals of India's diplomatic strategy. In the context of the strengthening of the competition in China and the United States, India -US relations have continued to develop in -depth.India's huge economic volume, population volume and development potential has made it the cornerstone of the influence of the United States in the Asia -Pacific region in the Asia -Pacific region. India has continuously cooperated with the United States' "India" diplomacy and intended to obtain US military, intelligence and diplomatic support.While improving its own strength and international status, it achieves the strategic goals of curbing India.
China -Pakistan friendship is regarded by India as a negative factor for Sino -India relations. Therefore, India has chosen a variety of hedge strategies to deal with.The hedging strategy of the Modi government is mainly reflected in the following aspects: participating in the "four -sided mechanism" of the United States, Japan, and Australia, the implementation of the "Indian manufacturing" policy, and the implementation of the "eastward action" policy.Varanasi Investment
However, China -India is a near neighbor.The two countries are also developed countries in the development. They belong to a member of the southern country. China and India should have worked hard to return to the normal relationship and create a win -win situation. This is not only in line with India's interests, but also in the interests of India.
Original title: Modi won but not many, the Indian stock market has fell in 4 years
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