Coal is hailed as "black gold and food food food". It is one of the main energy sources we have used since the 18th centuryNagpur Investment. Since entering the 21st century, although the emergence of new energy has reduced the importance of coal to a certain extent,So far, coal is one of the indispensable energy sources of our production and life.
my country's resource reserve shows the pattern of "rich coal, poor oil, and less gas". In my country's energy structure, coal occupies an important position.According to the data of "BP World Energy Statistics Yearbook", in 2022, my country's coal consumption accounted for 55%, which was far greater than the renewable energy (8%) and nuclear energy (2%) of hydropower (8%), scenery, etc.Coal is still the most important energy of my country.The supply of coal is also related to the stability of the development of industrial and even the whole society in my country. Therefore, the supply security problem of coal is also an important part of my country's energy security.
my country's energy consumption situation in 2022Ahmedabad Stock
Data source: BP
According to the classification standards of my country, coal can be divided into coal -to -focus coal and power coal according to the purpose according to the use of brown coal, tobacco and non -tobacco coal.In a broad sense, for the purpose of power generation, motorcycle promotion, and boiler burning, coal used to generate power is power coal, referred to as power coal.Looking at the consumer side, the current downstream is relatively high.Coking coal is the fuel for steel smelting, and its demand is closely related to the steel industry chain.
Analysis of the trend of coal plates and coal prices in 2023Kolkata Stocks
The trend of the coal sector in 2023 was different from 2021 ~ 2022. The rise of coal prices caused a surge in profitability of coal companies and the stock price following the rise in performance."Super Solding", Export of Indonesia Exports), and domestic demand failed to repair the impact of expectations. The central movement of coal prices, and the profitability of coal companies generally declined.
However, the performance of the coal sector is relatively bright. In 2023, the CSI Coal Index (399998.SZ) increased by 3.25%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 increased by -11.38%during the same period.Since October, the departure of the trend of the coal sector and the trend of coal prices is mainly due to the higher market expectations at the bottom of the off -season coal price.), The value of high dividends and high dividends in the coal sector is gradually being recognized by the market.
From the perspective of the market market, in terms of power coal, considering the stagnation of production capacity in recent years, the new output brought about by the production of new coal mines may be relatively limited.According to statistics from the Guosheng Securities Institute, in the first 1123 months, the average monthly coal production of my country's raw coal was basically stable at 3.8-390 million tons.The exhaustion of resources is inevitable. Coal production in non -main production areas is facing decline year by year, and the production capacity work is still being promoted.
In terms of imports, in 2024, the capital expenditure was insufficient, and the growth rate of global coal production slowed down; the output and exports of major exporting countries such as Indonesia, Mongolia, and Russia may have increased significantly.At the same time, the exports of Australia, South Africa and other countries have been disturbed due to strikes, transportation, etc., and the demand for coal demand for overlapping India and other countries has a high growth rate. It may increase the consumption of Australian coal. Generally speaking, the overseas coal market is expected to operate strongly.With expansion, domestic imports may also be difficult to increase the expected increase.
The relative rigidity of the supply eliminates the risk of decline in coal prices caused by the rapid release of production capacity.At the same time, due to the stagnation of new production capacity coal production nuclear increase, mining coal companies have a greater power output decision, and the mechanism of production with the spontaneous adjustment of coal prices can help reduce the risk of great fluctuations in coal prices.There may be some support near the club price, and the central downward settlement of the coal price is relatively bottomed.
The dual pressure faced by the basic aspects of the Chinese coal sector in 2023, that is, the number of imported coal far exceeds expectations, non -electrical demand is less than expected, and it is expected to be further relieved in 2024. With the further restoration of the economic recovery, the demand for coal consumption such as chemical industry is expected to exceed expectationsIn addition, the supply growth rate is faster than demand. On the whole, the coal supply and demand pattern in 2024 is expected to be marginal.
In addition, the high dividends and high red divisions of the coal plate also make it have a certain investment value.As an important upstream energy (power generation, coal chemical industry), coal has a large volume and relatively stable downstream demand (80 % of the long -term coal accounting), which guarantees its performance.The development investment in the capital industry has accounted for its high cost, and its development has been relatively stable to this day. Since the reform and development of the downstream supply side, the overall capital expenditure of the coal plate has declined in recent years.The flow is good, supporting its high dividends and high dividends.
In the industry leading company, such as (), it plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.55 yuan (including tax) per share, and the proportion of dividends accounts for about 72.8%of the net profit;Net profit is 60.17%.() The cash dividend of 12.0 yuan (including tax) per share, with a total of 6.81 billion yuan (tax) to distribute cash dividends in 2022, accounting for 63.5%of the company's net profit at the time of the company.(Description: The above dividend plans are all from the company's "2022 profit distribution plan". It is mentioned that individual stocks are only used as viewpoints and do not constitute individual stock recommendations.)
In summary, the bottom of the low coal price in the off -season in 2023 is higher than the market expectations, or a new round of coal prices are laid.Looking forward to 2024, the relative rigid relief of the supply side is the risk of decline in coal prices caused by the rapid release of production capacity. The mechanism of production with the spontaneous adjustment of coal prices also helps reduce the risk of significant fluctuations in coal prices.If the spot price falls to the long -term cooperative price, there may be some support, and the downward settlement of the coal price center is relatively bottomed.High -quality upstream resource companies have the characteristics of "high dividends+high dividends", which also makes the sector have a certain investment value.The coal plate can still continue to pay attention.
Coal ETF (515220): The only coal industry ETF in the market
Coal ETF (515220) is the only ETF in the market in the market. The tracking index is the CSI Coal Index (399998). It is preferably a leading company in the coal industry, including power coal, coking coal, coke, non -tobacco coal.
CSI Coal Index (399998) The top ten power stocks
In 2023, the coal stock price and fundamental aspects have been separated, and to a certain extent, the downward movement of coal prices has gradually been accepted by the market; on the other hand, the value of high dividends and high red scores in the coal plate is gradually being recognized by the market.This may lead to a reserved value of the coal sector, and there may still be a certain amount of room for future valuation in the future.
Coal ETF (515220) and its benchmark index secondary market rising declines
In addition, the operation of coal companies has continued to improve, and the industry leaders' profit dividends highlight value.In the past 5 years, the industry concentration has increased year by year, the number of large ores and the proportion of production capacity has steadily increased, and the industry competition pattern has been optimized.The high -scales and profit release capabilities of coal companies have long -term investment value.
CSI Coal Index (399998) has a high dividend rate
Investors should fully understand the differences in the method of savings such as funding fixed investment and zero deposit.Regular fixed investment is a simple way to guide investors to make long -term investment and average investment costs.However, regular fixed investment does not avoid the risks inherent in fund investment, cannot guarantee that investors get benefits, nor is it an equivalent way to replace savings.
Whether it is the stock ETF/LOF fund, it is a variety of securities investment funds with higher expected risks and expected income. Its expected income and expected risk levels are higher than mixed funds, bond funds and currency market funds.
Fund assets invest in science and technology boards and GEM stocks, and will face the unique risks caused by differences in investment targets, market systems, and trading rules. Investors are required to pay attention.
The short -term rise and fall of the sector/fund is only used as an auxiliary materials for the analysis of the article. It is for reference only and does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance.
In the article, the short -term performance of individual stocks is for reference only, does not constitute stock recommendations, nor does it constitute a prediction and guarantee of fund performance.
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